In the Name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful
Grande Strategy

Model Indicates Trump Will Win GOP Primary

3/14/2016
M. Hussain, m.hussain@grandestrategy.com

I have been following the Republican Primary and it appears that the nomination is on a knife edge at the moment, as to whether Trump will win or it will be a brokered convention and subsequently the establishment will steal the nomination from Trump. This Tuesday, the GOP Primary in Ohio and Florida may hold the key, yet, the question I kept coming back to is whether Trump can win based on the data we have now.

The way I considered this was to consider the remaining contested states and to base the analysis on two major factors -

1. Whether Primary states are using an Open or a closed nomination contest
2. Opinion polls in each remaining state are in Trump's favor or not.

The reasoning for the first point above is that, till now, Trump has fared exceedingly well in Open or Modified contests. This is likely to continue to give him a decisive advantage. Opinion polls make the other major factor to gauge public support. In a few states where we could not find polls, we substituted whether that state is a Democratic state or a Republican voting state, with Trump getting the advantage in Democratic voting states and vice versa.

If both these factor align for Trump, we are predicting a Trump win. The following table of predicted results indicates the result of the analysis:


Contest Type Poll Data Predicted Wins
MI Open T Trump
NC Open T Trump
FL Closed T ?
OH Modified T Trump
North Marianas Closed Cruz
Arizona Closed ? Cruz
Utah Modified Cruz ?
Wisconsin Open T Trump
NY Closed T Trump
Delaware Closed ?T ?
Maryland Closed T ?
Pennsylvania Closed ?T ?
RI Modified T T
Indiana Open ?Rep Trump
Nebraska Closed ?Rep Cruz
West V Modified T Trump
Oregon Closed ?Dem ?
Washington Closed ?Dem ?
Montana Modified Cruz ?
NJ Modified T Trump
NM Closed ?Cruz Cruz
SD Closed ?Cruz Cruz
CA Closed ? ?

The data indicates either a Trump win or a "Cruz" win (which can also substitute for another establishment candidate win).  It also indicates a question mark for states on the balance. The way we quantify this balance is to assume approximately half the delegates from these states will be won by Trump. Looking at the numbers in this way, we see the following results:


Trump Wins 476
Probables 240.5
Total wins 716.5

Now, at face value this looks like a Trump loss as the present GOP Primary results look like this:


Trump 460
Cruz 370
Rubio 163
Kasich 63
Others 20

1076

This indicates Trump would fall just short with 1177 delegates. Yet, there are some delegates that have not been accounted for yet - about 285 that doesn't add up to the total delegate count. If we normalize these missing delegates to the percentage of delegates Trump has won so far (42.75%), we find that Trump actually wins the delegate maths, exceeding the threshold of 1237 to 1298 delegates, a margin of 5% above threshold. Trump wins!

However, given the level of anti-Trump propaganda going on by the powers that be, with all media outlets including the Golf channel going full-mel against Trump, and given the millions upon millions being funneled against him, all my numbers could just end up in the waste paper bin come tomorrow.

Disclaimer: I'm hoping for a Trump win.


Vision Without Glasses

1 comments:

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