In the Name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful
Grande Strategy

American AF-Pak Policy and Pakistan Options

American AF-Pak Policy and Pakistan Options  

Posted by pakmission on April 6, 2009

By: Majid Mahmood


Published @

Nothing can be more embracing for the people of Pakistan than Obama's latest statement that there would be no "blank check" for Pakistan. Indeed it is this alliance of secular, libral fringe elements (Pakistan ruling elite) with America that has brings Pakistan at the brink of disaster. With more than 1500 Pakistani troops dead along with economic damage more than 35 billion dollars, displacement of more than half a million people thus becoming refugee in their own country, increasing hatred between army and civilian population, suicide bombings and destruction of social fabric are few of many rewards Pakistan received in so called war on terror.

More heat is yet to come in the aftermath of much touted about Obama's review of "Af-Pak" region. The outcome is very clear that center point of focus is now the complete destabilization of Pakistan and its armed forces. International campaign has been launched to create an international public opinion that Pakistan is the source of destabilization Afghanistan and so called free world. Special envoy for Af-Pak Richard Holbrook said in an interview "You could have a great government in Kabul," the Afghan capital, Holbrooke said Friday, but "if the current situation in western Pakistan continued, the instability of Afghanistan would continue." Obama described the country's border region as "the most dangerous place in the world," and warned that the United States' patience was wearing thin after Washington provided more than $12 billion in aid to Islamabad over seven years only to see Al Qaeda remain intactHe further continued that "After years of mixed results, we will not and cannot provide a blank check," Obama said. "Pakistan must demonstrate its commitment to rooting out Al Qaeda and the violent extremists within its borders. And we will insist that action be taken, one way or another, when we have intelligence about high-level terrorist targets." Another warning came from top adviser to the US Central Command in an interview with Washington Post. David Kilcullen, who advises CENTCOM commander Gen. David H. Petra us on the war on terror, urged US policy makers to focus their attention on Pakistan as a failure there could have devastating consequences for the entire international communityBritish were also toeing the same line all along. Devastating attacks were also made by Key elements of Britain and America on Pakistan army for supporting Taliban elements.


So in Pakistan united states would be doing two things one creating a vicious civil war situation more worse than 2007 & 2008 with focus on targeting political centres like Lahore, Islamabad & Peshawar. It has already begun in Lahore as this event came shortly after Obama's speech. Secondly army would be launching a major offensive in Tribal belt to protect United states & NATO forces in Afghanistan. So U.S would spill war thus expanding the war theatre into Pakistan just like it did in 2007 which was the bloodiest year in Pakistan history. So we would be seeing more suicide bombings in cities than in 2007. Drone attacks would continue but on a faster rate and expansion of targets to balochistan is also expected thus creating major chaos in Pakistan. Government may push army to conduct operations in balochistan like in NWFP. Meanwhile in Afghanistan U.S led forces containing new contingent of 17000 U.S troops would be deployed on key strategic provinces bordering Pakistan to defeat Taliban and prevent their humiliating defeat. Secondly defences of Kabul would be made strong as Taliban control three of the four supply routes to Kabul. This spring may be decisive and would greatly determine the future of South Asia. Cross border commando raids in the pretext of hot pursuit into Pakistan territory cannot be entirely ruled out.

On political front Iran would be a key player in Afghanistan and if the U.S plan of involving Iran succeeds than Pakistan would definitely be dumped. At an international conference on Afghanistan at The Hague, in the Netherlands, the Iranian delegate, Mohammad Mehdi Akhundzadeh, responded positively to Barrack Obama's new strategy for winning the war against the Taliban. Three weeks earlier U.S senate intelligence committee was briefed the fact that non military convoys of NATO were passing through province of Iran bordering Afghanistan. This fact exposes the reality that Anti American stance of Iranian governments is mere a bluff used to fool Muslim ummah. Time will tell exactly the nature of Iranian corporation in Afghanistan as America would have to sell the Iranian led solution to its European allies who are already vary of Iranian nuclear plan. So we shall have to wait. Russia would not be given a big stake in Afghanistan due to obvious reasons. Political reconciliation with "moderate Taliban" doesn't seem to be successful. Most probably a political government based upon ethnic divisions would be formed which would obviously be overwhelmed by Northern alliance and Iranian influenced elements. Again this government would a definitely be American puppet. Second option might be to keep American stooge Hamid karzai as president while forwarding a candidate as prime minister powerful than president.


The bottom line is that situation would be more severe for the Muslims of Afghanistan and Pakistan as America and its European allies are not here to stabilize the region but to create more chaos and suffering in the pretext of freedoms and democracies. The real challenge lies for Pakistan that how can it alter its fate as the time is running out. Problems are grave and require a radical solution, at the same time requirement of visionary ideological leadership which not only drive Pakistan out of the storm but making it the future power of the world. Its time for Pakistan to use its geo-political muscles to oust allied forces from Afghanistan. A fresh starting would be to pull out from war on terror followed by immense and sincere diplomatic moves to build relations with Russia. This would then complicate the matters for U.S who is finding a more resurgent Russia a big problem in central Asia. Russia as well as china is resentful of American colonialist hegemony within the region. However such a policy should be made carefully as one would not want to replace U.S with Russia. Similar efforts should be made to politically isolate America from its allies. Germany and France are already vary of sending more troops to Afghanistan so it provides an opening for Pakistan to negotiate on equal terms thus creating drift in NATO.

One of the most important things that Pakistan has is a strong military equipped with nuclear weapons and a sophisticated delivery system. To make matters worse for U.S Pakistan is located in a very strategic location that is over looking the most important trade route of the world "the straits of harmoz" through Gawader port. The U.S Centcom Head quarter is in Qatar is again in the vicinity of Gawader. All major U.S military bases in Afghanistan are in our range. A country whose economy is on death bed can afford to loose its major bases in Afghanistan and Middle East?? . Pakistan is not a banana republic and needs to understand the immense political potential of its nuclear capabilities. It's high time to add new direction to our strategic assets towards West Asia (Middle East) rather than only focusing towards India.

Surely if Pakistan makes its independent foreign policy without U.S dictation its has to take into account the fact that Afghanistan and Pakistan are interlinked together and neither of them can be isolated from each other. So new Pakistan made AF-PAK policy should also focus to eradicate the miseries and suffering of our Muslim brothers in Afghanistan and unity of Pakistan and Afghanistan can be made into a reality only through their Common creed or aqeedah that is Islam. The problems of afghan tribal society are same as that were of Arab society 1400 years ago. In that horrifying darkness there came a light that not only organized the Arabs but made them a Super power and that light was transformation of their society on the basis of Islamic aqeedah followed by Islamic system of governance. Massive internal reformation on the basis of Islamic aqeedah and Islamic system that is required in both Pakistan and Afghanistan so that the Af- Pak region could be the leading regions of the world.

Vision Without Glasses


Post a Comment